PA Senate Primary Memo 12.18.21

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December 18, 2021

Malcolm Kenyatta Well Positioned in the PA Senate Democratic Primary Survey results among 600 likely primary voters1 Interested Parties To: From: GQR

A recent survey of 600 Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania shows a fluid contest with 6 months until Election Day. While Lt. Governor John Fetterman leads in the initial vote, State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta surges when voters hear more about all four candidates. By the final vote in the survey, Kenyatta is tied with Lt. Governor Fetterman 34 to 34 percent, while Congressman Conor Lamb and Montgomery County Executive Val Arkoosh trail with 12 and 11 percent respectively.

Figure 1: Trial Heat Progression

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The following memo is based on a survey of 600 likely Democratic primary voters, with 47 percent surveyed on their cell phone. The poll is based on a representative random sample pulled from the PA voter file. Respondents voted in either of the last two Democratic primaries or are newly registered since 2018. They were further screened for likelihood of voting in the Democratic primary. The data was weighted on race, education and gender to match the counts on the voter file and other private and publicly available primary surveys. ©2021 All Rights Reserved

Dec-21

PA Democratic Primary Survey Results

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Kenyatta is well positioned to compete in this race as he begins with a base among voters of color, especially black voters (71 percent in the initial vote) and in Philadelphia (56 percent in the initial vote). After positives and negatives are heard about all four candidates, Kenyatta grows his share with these voters, but also expands to Allegheny County (26 percent Kenyatta 34 percent Fetterman, 20 percent Lamb, 6 percent Arkoosh), Philadelphia suburbs (34 percent Kenyatta, 28 percent Fetterman, 23 percent Arkoosh, 8 percent Lamb), liberal voters (40 percent Kenyatta, 40 percent Fetterman, 10 percent Arkoosh, 6 percent Lamb), women (40 percent Kenyatta, 29 percent Fetterman, 12 percent Arkoosh, 9 percent Lamb), and younger voters (48 percent Kenyatta, 28 percent Fetterman, 12 percent Arkoosh, 6 percent Lamb).

Table 1: Kenyatta Vote Share

Fetterman (57 percent favorable, 7 percent unfavorable) and Lamb (39 percent favorable, 8 percent unfavorable) are particularly vulnerable to attacks, even though they both garner net favorable approval ratings. Lamb’s record of voting with Donald Trump 70 percent of the time and supporting the border wall and tax cuts for the rich causes very serious doubts among 44 percent of Democratic primary voters. Fetterman’s actions against an unarmed Black jogger causes very serious doubts among 34 percent of Democratic primary voters, including 51 percent among Black voters. In contrast, arguing that Kenyatta is unelectable in Pennsylvania because he is young, Black and gay only produces 8 percent very serious doubts.

©2021 All Rights Reserved

Dec-21

PA Democratic Primary Survey Results

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Table 2: Candidate Doubts Statements

This race for Senate has not been fully engaged and with only months left before Election Day, it is clear that Kenyatta has a path to the nomination with a geographic and demographic base, and the ability to energize an electorate that is hungry for new leadership.

©2021 All Rights Reserved

Dec-21