seminar 5-14.12-final

consum

pierderi

retur

capacit.

distrib. (nr. pet) yt

comb. (€) x1

materiale (€) x2

mf. (%) x3

încarc. (nr. pet) x4

131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

r y xi intensitatea

1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

124 236 124 147 165 167 172 258 240 225 182 123 178 245 110 117 185 206 217 260 233 206 183 165

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

530 550 400 400 420 430 480 500 490 470 450 430 560 580 450 450 470 480 520 550 550 510 490 480

fond salarii (€)

IPC (%)

x5

x6

1,887 1,965 1,942 1,958 1,913 1,877 1,876 1,925 1,899 1,881 1,905 1,911 2,021 2,120 1,932 2,025 2,030 2,050 2,057 2,070 2,012 2,043 2,050 2,069

153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

vanzari (nr. pet 2l)

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

total

Ev in 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 vno

99

0 nJa

0

Evolu noiem cons. comb (euro)

Luna

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500

0.864 0.936 0.781 puternica puternica puternica

0.627 medie

0.171 lipsa

1,000

-0.286 slaba

500

1. graficele - evolutia fiecarui indicator (7 grafice) tip Line 0 2. graficele de corelatie intre y si fiecare x (6 grafice) tip XY Scatter 3. calculati coef de corelatie simpla intre y si fiecare variabila x 4. Estimati modelul de regresie multipla; calculați valorile teoretice; reprezentati-le pe graficele corespunzătoare. 5. Previziunea pentru urmatoarele 2 luni cu modelul econometric identificat. P=95%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

pierderi materiale (euro)

ICy t  h  yˆ t  h  t n/k21  2 [ X t h ( X X ) 1 X t  h  1]

Evo in p 300 250 200 150

pierderi materi

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9849119 R Square 0.9700515 Adjusted R 0.9594815 Standard E 10055.218 Observatio 24

300 250 200 150 100

F*>Fteo

Regresia este global semnificativa <5% df SS MS F Significance F Regression 6 5.57E+10 9.28E+09 91.77361 5.29E-12 Residual 17 1.72E+09 1.01E+08 Total 23 5.74E+10 <5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -313557.9 277324.5 -1.130653 0.273901 -898661 271545.7 -898661 271545.7 x1 63.994061 10.98732 5.824355 2.031E-05 40.81284 87.17528 40.81284 87.17528 x2 294.44334 140.3699 2.097625 0.051195 -1.711196 590.5979 -1.711196 590.5979 x3 233123.44 85884.23 2.714392 0.014726 51923.55 414323.3 51923.55 414323.3 x4 107.08462 61.2569 1.748123 0.098477 -22.15614 236.3254 -22.15614 236.3254 x5 -119.8913 55.08067 -2.176649 0.043892 -236.1013 -3.681222 -236.1013 -3.681222 x6 807.23072 530.3579 1.522049 0.14638 -311.7267 1926.188 -311.7267 1926.188 ANOVA

50 0

retur marfa (%)

Ev in 1.7 1.65 1.6 1.55

Se elimina variabila x6.

1.5 1.45

SUMMARY OUTPUT

ANOVA df

SS MS F Significance F Regression 5 5.54E+10 1.11E+10 102.1902 1.441E-12 Residual 18 1.95E+09 1.09E+08 Total 23 5.74E+10 <5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 62058.882 131063.2 0.473504 0.641546 -213295 337412.4 -213295 337412.4 x1 59.009539 10.86472 5.431297 3.686E-05 36.1836 81.83548 36.1836 81.83548 x2 421.92151 116.6922 3.61568 0.001977 176.7604 667.0827 176.7604 667.0827 x3 138324.08 61258.28 2.258047 0.036598 9625.2 267023 9625.2 267023 x4 93.205894 62.75073 1.485336 0.154759 -38.6285 225.0403 -38.6285 225.0403 x5 -180.1024 39.70383 -4.536146 0.000256 -263.517 -96.68772 -263.517 -96.68772

1.4 1.35

9 99 00 00 -9 ec- an- eb- a v no D J F M

capacitate incarcare (nr. peturi)

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9828379 R Square 0.9659704 Adjusted R 0.9565177 Standard E 10416.479 Observatio 24

Evo in 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Se elimina variabila x4.

100

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

total

consum

pierderi

retur

distrib. (nr. pet) yt

comb. (€) x1

materiale (€) x2

mf. (%) x3

131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

124 236 124 147 165 167 172 258 240 225 182 123 178 245 110 117 185 206 217 260 233 206 183 165

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

fond salarii (€) x5 1,887 1,965 1,942 1,958 1,913 1,877 1,876 1,925 1,899 1,881 1,905 1,911 2,021 2,120 1,932 2,025 2,030 2,050 2,057 2,070 2,012 2,043 2,050 2,069

Evolutia luna in perioada 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750

9 9 9 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 -9 ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un v no D J F M A M J

Ev in 160 155 IPC (%)

Luna

fond salarii (euro)

0

150 145 140 135 130 125 120

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9807137 R Square 0.9617994 Adjusted R 0.9537572 Standard E 10742.038 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS F Significance F 4 5.52E+10 1.38E+10 119.5937 3.432E-13 19 2.19E+09 1.15E+08 23 5.74E+10

115

9 0 0 9 9 -9 -0 -0 v- ec J an Feb o D M n

<5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 91586.908 133595.6 0.685553 0.501275 -188032 371205.7 -188032 371205.7 x1 61.916609 11.021 5.618057 2.038E-05 38.84939 84.98383 38.84939 84.98383 x2 472.62527 115.0751 4.107102 0.0006 231.7703 713.4803 231.7703 713.4803 x3 123167.79 62290.29 1.977319 0.062698 -7207.286 253542.9 -7207.286 253542.9 x5 -167.9218 40.06188 -4.191562 0.000495 -251.7723 -84.07136 -251.7723 -84.07136

Se elimina variabila x3.

Luna

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

total

consum

pierderi

distrib. (nr. pet) yt

comb. (€) x1

materiale (€) x2

131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics

1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

124 236 124 147 165 167 172 258 240 225 182 123 178 245 110 117 185 206 217 260 233 206 183 165

fond salarii (€) x5 1,887 1,965 1,942 1,958 1,913 1,877 1,876 1,925 1,899 1,881 1,905 1,911 2,021 2,120 1,932 2,025 2,030 2,050 2,057 2,070 2,012 2,043 2,050 2,069

yt

Multiple R 0.9766978 R Square 0.9539386 Adjusted R 0.9470294 Standard E 11496.94 Observatio 24 ANOVA df

SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 5.47E+10 1.82E+10 138.0676 1.557E-13 Residual 20 2.64E+09 1.32E+08 Total 23 5.74E+10 <5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 319725.87 72080.67 4.435667 0.000254 169368.2 470083.5 169368.2 470083.5 x1 61.553043 11.79386 5.219073 4.162E-05 36.95147 86.15461 36.95147 86.15461 x2 606.96759 99.40445 6.106041 5.744E-06 399.6136 814.3216 399.6136 814.3216 x5 -198.0388 39.6575 -4.993728 6.973E-05 -280.7629 -115.3147 -280.7629 -115.3147

Renuntam la acest model!

vanzari (nr. pet 2l)

Evolutia lunara a vanzarilor la S.C. Coca Cola Bv in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

vno

99

0 nJa

0

0 0 -0 -0 ar ay M M

1 0 00 00 01 01 l-0 r -0 vypna a o a e Ju J S n M M

1 01 l-0 pe Ju S

cons. comb (euro)

Evolutia lunara a consumului de combustibil la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 3,500

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

0

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor - c Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie

3,000 2,500

300,000 250,000

2,000

200,000

1,500

150,000

1,000

100,000

500

50,000

0

0 1,000

Evolutia lunara a pierderi materiale la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

pierderi materiale (euro)

X t h  1]

250

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor perioada noiembrie 1999-oc 300,000 250,000

200 200,000

150

2,

Cons. c

orespunzătoare.

300

1,500

vanzari Coca Col

pierderi materi

300 250

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor perioada noiembrie 1999-oc 300,000 250,000

200 200,000

150 150,000

100 100,000

50 50,000

0

0 100

120

140

160

180

retur marfa (%)

Evolutia lunara a returului de marfa la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 1.7 1.65 1.6

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

Pierderi mat

1.55

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilo perioada noiembrie 1999-o 300,000 250,000 200,000

1.5

150,000

1.45

100,000

1.4 50,000

1.35 0 1.46

Evolutia lunara a capacitatii de incarcare la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 700 600

1.48

1.5

1.52

1.54

Retur marf

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

capacitate incarcare (nr. peturi)

9 9 9 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 -9 ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un- Jul- ug- ep- ct- ov- ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un- Jul- ug- ep- ctv A S O n D J F M A M J A S O no D J F M A M J

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor perioada noiembrie 1999-oc 300,000 250,000

500 200,000

400 300

150,000

200

100,000

100

50,000

0

0 300

350

400

capacitate de inca

100

50,000

0

0 300

350

400

Evolutia lunara a fondului de salarii la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

150

100

050

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

capacitate de inca

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor - fondul perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 300,000 250,000

000 200,000

950 150,000

850

100,000

800

50,000

750

9 9 9 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 -9 ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un- Jul- ug- ep- ct- ov- ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un- Jul- ug- ep- ctv A S O n D J F M A M J A S O no D J F M A M J

Evolutia lunara a IPC in Romania, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 160 IPC (%)

155 150

0 1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,90

fondul de salarii, x5 (euro)

vanzari Coca Cola (nr. pet 2l)

900

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilo 1999-octombrie 2001 300,000

145

250,000

140

200,000

135 150,000

130 125

100,000

120

50,000

115 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 v- ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t o D A n D A M M M M n

0 125

130

135

140

a lunara a vanzarilor - consumul de combustibil la S.C. Coca in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Cons. combustibil, x1 (euro)

orelatia lunara a vanzarilor - pierderi materiale la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in erioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

orelatia lunara a vanzarilor - pierderi materiale la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in erioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

0

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Pierderi materiale, x2 (euro)

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor - returul de marfa la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

46

1.48

1.5

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.6

1.62

1.64

1.66

Retur marfa, x3 (%)

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor - capacitate de incarcare la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

00

350

400

450

500

capacitate de incarcare, x4 (nr. pet 2l)

550

600

00

350

400

450

500

550

600

capacitate de incarcare, x4 (nr. pet 2l)

unara a vanzarilor - fondul de salarii la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

00

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

fondul de salarii, x5 (euro)

Corelatia lunara a vanzarilor - IPC la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 125

130

135

140

145

150

IPC, x6 (%)

155

160

Luna

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

consum comb. (€) x1 ti 1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

trend_x1 D12 -23 1715 -21 1742 -19 1770 -17 1798 -15 1825 -13 1853 -11 1881 -9 1908 -7 1936 -5 1964 -3 1991 -1 2019 1 2047 3 2074 5 2102 7 2130 9 2157 11 2185 13 2213 15 2240 17 2268 19 2296 21 2323 23 2351 25 2379 27 2406

D1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

D6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

ti 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.440077 R Square 0.193668 Adjusted R 0.157016 Standard E 408.1505 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

Intercept

SS MS F Significance F 1 880251.9 880251.9 5.284042 0.031395 22 3664911 166586.9 23 4545163

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 2032.875 83.31338 24.40034 2.012E-17 1860.094 2205.656 1860.094 2205.656

-23 -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

ti

13.83326 6.017851 2.298704 0.031395 1.353001 26.31352 1.353001 26.31352

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.929284 R Square 0.863569 Adjusted R 0.825672 Standard E 185.6071 Observatio 24 ANOVA df

SS MS F Significance F Regression 5 3925063 785012.6 22.78702 3.319E-07 Residual 18 620099.7 34449.98 Total 23 4545163 <5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 2009.433 46.40745 43.29979 1.184E-19 1911.935 2106.932 1911.935 2106.932 D12 874.2241 141.7771 6.166186 8.033E-06 576.3614 1172.087 576.3614 1172.087 D1 -539.8109 140.7908 -3.834135 0.001215 -835.6013 -244.0204 -835.6013 -244.0204 D6 475.0145 139.4345 3.406721 0.003144 182.0734 767.9555 182.0734 767.9555 D10 -528.1253 142.6679 -3.701781 0.001632 -827.8593 -228.3912 -827.8593 -228.3912 ti 17.51747 2.906148 6.027728 1.065E-05 11.41188 23.62306 11.41188 23.62306

cons. comb (euro)

Evolutia lunara a consumului de combustibil la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 v- ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec o D A n D A M M N D M M n

cons. comb (euro)

x1teo 1607 2516 1137 1712 1747 1782 1817 2327 1887 1922 1957 1464 2027 2936 1557 2132 2167 2202 2237 2747 2307 2342 2377 1884 2447 3357

Evolutia lunara a consumului de combustibil la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 v- ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec o D A n D A M M N D M M n

a Cola Bv,

0 1 -0 1 t -01 -0 1 -0 1 v c p Se Oc No De

ola Bv,

1 1 1 1 -0 t -0 v-0 c-0 Oc No De

Luna

total distrib. (nr. pet) yt

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

consum comb. (€) x1

131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

r y xi intensitatea

yt x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

pierderi materiale (€) x2

1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

124 236 124 147 165 167 172 258 240 225 182 123 178 245 110 117 185 206 217 260 233 206 183 165

retur mf. (%) x3

capacit. încarc. (nr. pet) x4

fond salarii IPC (€) (%) x5

x6

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

530 550 400 400 420 430 480 500 490 470 450 430 560 580 450 450 470 480 520 550 550 510 490 480

1,887 1,965 1,942 1,958 1,913 1,877 1,876 1,925 1,899 1,881 1,905 1,911 2,021 2,120 1,932 2,025 2,030 2,050 2,057 2,070 2,012 2,043 2,050 2,069

153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

0.864 0.936 0.781 puternica puternica puternica

0.627 medie

0.171 lipsa

-0.286 slaba

yt

x1

1 0.86418528438 0.93581737392 0.78058929409 0.62690431859 0.17099404314 -0.2857828273

1 0.83991037 0.52913019 0.69062357 0.53762289 -0.505187

x2

x3

x4

x5

1 0.73991874 1 0.64284476 0.3099796 1 0.3090493 -0.056754 0.50202089 1 -0.3140486 -0.384242 -0.3935654 -0.632057

x1

x2 x3 x4 x5 1 0.8399103684 1 0.52913018607 0.73991874 1 0.6906235686 0.64284476 0.30997959 1 0.53762289481 0.3090493 -0.0567536 0.5020209 1 -0.5051870029 -0.31404862 -0.3842416 -0.393565 -0.6320569

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

Luna

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

total distrib. (nr. pet) yt 131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

consum comb. (€) x1 1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

Variabila x5 nu se considera in model. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics

pierderi materiale (€) x2 124 236 124 147 165 167 172 258 240 225 182 123 178 245 110 117 185 206 217 260 233 206 183 165

retur mf. (%) x3 1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

capacit. IPC încarc. (%) (nr. pet) x4 x6 530 550 400 400 420 430 480 500 490 470 450 430 560 580 450 450 470 480 520 550 550 510 490 480

153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

x6

1

Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Squ Standard Error Observations

0.9806656 0.9617051 0.9510676 11050.019 24

ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

Intercept x1 x2 x3 x4 x6

SS MS F Significance F 5 55194921668 1.1039E+10 90.4072104 4.145E-12 18 2197852551.92 122102920 23 57392774220

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat -839548.9 149524.848042 -5.61477861 62.185564 12.039765852 5.1650144 175.09634 142.002086832 1.23305471 360260.91 69192.7439962 5.20662849 102.39013 67.2755426608 1.52195175 1636.3294 405.54997218 4.03484025

P-value Lower 95% 2.5041E-05 -1153689 6.5048E-05 36.890955 0.2334168 -123.239 5.9492E-05 214892.35 0.14539506 -38.95054 0.00077714 784.30048

Se elimina x2 (era multicorelat cu x1 si x3). Luna

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01

total distrib. (nr. pet) yt 131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965 181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398

consum comb. (€) x1 1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097 1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630

retur mf. (%) x3 1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64

capacit. încarc. (nr. pet) x4 530 550 400 400 420 430 480 500 490 470 450 430 560 580 450 450 470 480 520 550

IPC (%) x6 153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7

Upper 95%Lower 95.0% -525408.87 -1153689 87.4801734 36.89095 473.431656 -123.239 505629.473 214892.4 243.7308 -38.95054 2488.35822 784.3005

Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884

1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

550 510 490 480

131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.979015 R Square 0.9584704 Adjusted R Squ 0.9497273 Standard Error 11200.331 Observations 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

Intercept x1 x3 x4 x6

SS MS F Significance F 4 55009273467 1.3752E+10 109.626166 7.568E-13 19 2383500752.48 125447408 23 57392774220

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat -977860.9 100216.235349 -9.75750948 72.902668 8.44481790428 8.63282893 423669.89 46924.1989333 9.02881449 132.57065 63.5175130191 2.08715107 1883.1235 357.517910803 5.26721433

P-value Lower 95% 7.8042E-09 -1187616 5.313E-08 55.227461 2.6572E-08 325456.41 0.05058388 -0.373037 4.3923E-05 1134.8299

Upper 95%Lower 95.0% -768105.88 -1187616 90.5778753 55.22746 521883.364 325456.4 265.514328 -0.373037 2631.41705 1134.83

Se elimina variabila x4. Luna

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00

total distrib. (nr. pet) yt 131,750 225,245 76,316 104,875 159,366 160,124 168,745 240,814 213,702 207,965

consum comb. (€) x1 1,523 2,525 1,114 1,369 1,945 1,865 1,647 2,444 2,268 2,097

retur mf. (%) x3 1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635

IPC (%) x6 153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4

Vanz teoretice (nr. pet) yteo 121026 215897 80060 107651 176712 178113 163386 232655 220349 205621

lim inf 121026 215897 80060 107651 176712 178113 163386 232655 220349 205621

lim sup 121026 215897 80060 107651 176712 178113 163386 232655 220349 205621

Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

181,546 117,786 133,079 226,416 78,116 106,994 161,203 164,045 170,614 243,398 214,011 208,844 183,939 118,968

1,952 1,464 1,884 2,927 1,580 1,884 2,355 2,208 1,999 2,630 2,325 2,545 2,355 1,884 2,447 3,357

1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55 1.55 1.55

144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8 129.5 128.5

169844 88190 128667 225529 90367 116792 174498 165389 176682 234618 201201 219858 178633 126121 169112 243241

169844 88190 128667 225529 90367 116792 174498 165389 176682 234618 201201 219858 178633 126121 141093 210579

169844 88190 128667 225529 90367 116792 174498 165389 176682 234618 201201 219858 178633 126121 197130 275903

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.97414 R Square 0.9489487 Adjusted R Squ 0.941291 Standard Error 12103.666 Observations 24

12103.7

ANOVA df

Regression Residual Total

Intercept x1 x3 x6

SS MS F Significance F 3 54462799520 1.8154E+10 123.920978 4.345E-13 20 2929974699.76 146498735 23 57392774220 disp rez <5% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% -910162.9 102469.731577 -8.88226145 2.2323E-08 -1123911 -696414.83 -1123911 83.605941 7.25058962878 11.5309162 2.7414E-10 68.481477 98.7304064 68.48148 413545.66 50437.0873268 8.1992376 7.9545E-08 308335.74 518755.583 308335.7 1817.8493 384.871610999 4.72326159 0.00013021 1015.0212 2620.67741 1015.021

ICy t  h  yˆ t  h  t n/k21  2 [ X t h ( X X ) 1 X t  h  1] t Student 5%,20

2.08596345 1

er. Prev 25 er. Prev 26

103182.1

1

2447.37 1.55 129.5

X_25

er. Prev 25 er. Prev 26

13432 15658 x1

matricea X

1514552 x3

X_26

3356.6 1.5 128.5

er. Prev 26

15658

1 1945 1.58 149

1 1865 1.6 148.9

x6

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1523 2525 1114 1369 1945 1865 1647 2444 2268 2097 1952 1464 1884 2927 1580 1884 2355 2208 1999 2630 2325 2545 2355 1884

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

x'

1 1523 1.51 153.7

1 2525 1.532 154.8

1 1114 1.48 156.8

1 1369 1.5 155.7

X'X

24 48789 37.589 3420.5

48789 103727101 76736.915 6913691.3

1 1647 1.63 144

37.589 3420.5 76736.915 6913691.3 58.954279 5353.1521 5353.1521 488855.17

ICy t  h  yˆ t  h  t n/k21  2 [ X t h ( X X ) 1 X t  h  1]

X'X inv

71.673287 -0.000132 -28.0784 -0.192163

X25' X25'*inv(X'X)

1

-0.0001316898 -28.0784048 -0.1921633 3.5884986E-07 -0.00104961 7.34E-06 -0.0010496114 17.3646535 0.02115809 7.3400006E-06 0.02115809 0.00101111 2447.37

1.55

129.52

3.0612516 7.491009E-05 -1.06673208 -0.0105328

X25'*inv(X'X)*X25 X25'*inv(X'X)*X25+1

0.23151526503 1.23151526503

disp*[…] er prev 25

180415428.446 13432

x6

1

Upper 95.0% -525409 87.48017 473.4317 505629.5 243.7308 2488.358

vanzari (nr. pet 2l)

Upper 95.0% -768106 90.57788 521883.4 265.5143 2631.417

Ajustarea si previziunea evolutiei lunare a vanzarilor la S.C. Coca Cola Bv in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000

vanz

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 y

Upper 95.0% -696415 98.73041 518755.6 2620.677

X t h  1]

1 2444 1.65 140.9

X t h  1]

1 2268 1.64 144.5

1 2097 1.635 145.4

1 1952 1.58 144.9

1 1464 1.49 142.9

1 1884 1.51 141.3

1 2927 1.536 140.7

1 1580 1.485 139.9

1 1884 1.487 140

1 2355 1.53 140.3

1 2208 1.55 137.5

1 1999 1.62 137.4

1 2630 1.64 135.7

1 2325 1.638 131.8

1 2545 1.636 132.4

1 2355 1.58 131.2

1 1884 1.55 130.8

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

retur mf. (%) x3

ti

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

D1 -23 -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

D6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.231853 R Square 0.053756 Adjusted R 0.010745 Standard E 0.059415 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual

SS MS F Significance F 1 0.004412 0.004412 1.249815 0.275648 22 0.077662 0.00353

Evolutia lunara a returu in perioada noiembrie retur marfa (%)

Luna

1.7 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35

9 9 9 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9 ec- an- eb- ar- pr- ay- un- Jul- ug- epv A S no D J F M A M J

Total

23 0.082074

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.566208 0.012128 129.1404 3.492E-33 1.541057 1.59136 1.541057 1.59136 ti 0.000979 0.000876 1.117951 0.275648 -0.000837 0.002796 -0.000837 0.002796

Concluzia: Timpul nu influenteaza variabila x3.

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.56753 R Square 0.322091 Adjusted R 0.257528 Standard E 0.051473 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS F Significance F 2 0.026435 0.013218 4.988798 0.016877 21 0.055639 0.002649 23 0.082074

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.5667 0.01151 136.12 2E-32 1.542764 1.590636 1.542764 1.590636 D1 -0.0842 0.038173 -2.205728 0.038681 -0.163586 -0.004814 -0.163586 -0.004814 D6 0.0783 0.038173 2.05117 0.052933 -0.001086 0.157686 -0.001086 0.157686

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.617365 R Square 0.38114 Adjusted R 0.288311 Standard E 0.050395 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS F Significance F 3 0.031282 0.010427 4.105832 0.020132 20 0.050792 0.00254 23 0.082074

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.571889 0.011878 132.3349 6.578E-31 1.547112 1.596666 1.547112 1.596666 D1 -0.089389 0.037562 -2.379775 0.027389 -0.167742 -0.011036 -0.167742 -0.011036 D6 0.073111 0.037562 1.946417 0.06579 -0.005242 0.151464 -0.005242 0.151464 D10 -0.051889 0.037562 -1.381423 0.182388 -0.130242 0.026464 -0.130242 0.026464

x3 nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.592489 R Square 0.351043 Adjusted R 0.253699 Standard E 0.051605 Observatio 24

D12

D1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS F Significance F 3 0.028811 0.009604 3.606222 0.031327 20 0.053263 0.002663 23 0.082074

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.570333 0.012164 129.1018 1.078E-30 1.544961 1.595706 1.544961 1.595706 D12 -0.036333 0.038464 -0.944595 0.356138 -0.116569 0.043902 -0.116569 0.043902 D1 -0.087833 0.038464 -2.283494 0.033472 -0.168069 -0.007598 -0.168069 -0.007598 D6 0.074667 0.038464 1.941186 0.06646 -0.005569 0.154902 -0.005569 0.154902

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

1.51 1.532 1.48 1.5 1.58 1.6 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.635 1.58 1.49 1.51 1.536 1.485 1.487 1.53 1.55 1.62 1.64 1.638 1.636 1.58 1.55

SUMMARY OUTPUT

D1

D5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

D8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

D2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

x3teo 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1.55 1.55 1.48 1.49 1.55 1.55 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.48 1.49 1.55 1.55 1.63 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55

retur marfa (%)

x3

1.7 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 9 -9 v no

0 nJa

0

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.886597 R Square 0.786054 Adjusted R 0.726625 Standard E 0.031233 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS F Significance F 5 0.064515 0.012903 13.22671 1.681E-05 18 0.017559 0.000976 23 0.082074

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.538214 0.008347 184.2735 6.101E-31 1.520677 1.555752 1.520677 1.555752 D1 -0.055714 0.02361 -2.359758 0.029782 -0.105317 -0.006111 -0.105317 -0.006111 D5 0.086786 0.02361 3.675777 0.001729 0.037183 0.136389 0.037183 0.136389 D6 0.106786 0.02361 4.52287 0.000263 0.057183 0.156389 0.057183 0.156389 D7 0.100786 0.02361 4.268742 0.000462 0.051183 0.150389 0.051183 0.150389 D8 0.097286 0.02361 4.120501 0.000642 0.047683 0.146889 0.047683 0.146889

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.918094 R Square 0.842896 Adjusted R 0.787447 Standard E 0.027541 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total

SS MS 6 0.06918 0.01153 17 0.012894 0.000758 23 0.082074

F Significance F 15.2014 5.42E-06

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.545667 0.00795 194.417 6.747E-30 1.528893 1.56244 1.528893 1.56244 D1 -0.063167 0.021034 -3.003014 0.008003 -0.107545 -0.018788 -0.107545 -0.018788 D5 0.079333 0.021034 3.771596 0.001522 0.034955 0.123712 0.034955 0.123712 D6 0.099333 0.021034 4.722418 0.000197 0.054955 0.143712 0.054955 0.143712 D7 0.093333 0.021034 4.437171 0.000361 0.048955 0.137712 0.048955 0.137712 D8 0.089833 0.021034 4.270777 0.000516 0.045455 0.134212 0.045455 0.134212

D2

-0.052167 0.021034 -2.480062 0.023903 -0.096545 -0.007788 -0.096545 -0.007788

Evolutia lunara a returului de marfa la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

99 -00 -00 r-00 r-00 -00 -00 l-00 -00 -00 t-00 -00 c-00 -01 -01 r-01 r-01 -01 -01 l-01 -01 -01 t-01 y n g p v y n g p n b n b Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se Oc no De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se Oc

retur marfa (%)

Evolutia lunara a returului de marfa la S.C. Coca Cola Bv, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001 1.7 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 9 -9 v no

0 0 1 00 01 00 0 1 r -0 1 0 0 r -00 01 01 -0 -0 l-0 vvyppnnul u a a ay a e a e o o J J Ja J S S n N M M M M

IPC (%) x6

nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

ti

153.7 154.8 156.8 155.7 149 148.9 144 140.9 144.5 145.4 144.9 142.9 141.3 140.7 139.9 140 140.3 137.5 137.4 135.7 131.8 132.4 131.2 130.8

x6teo -23 154.5 -21 153.4 -19 152.4 -17 151.4 -15 150.3 -13 149.3 -11 148.2 -9 147.2 -7 146.2 -5 145.1 -3 144.1 -1 143.0 1 142.0 3 141.0 5 139.9 7 138.9 9 137.8 11 136.8 13 135.8 15 134.7 17 133.7 19 132.6 21 131.6 23 130.6 25 129.5 27 128.5

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.955128 R Square 0.912269 Adjusted R 0.908281 Standard E 2.331089 Observatio 24 ANOVA df Regression

SS MS F Significance F 1 1243.112 1243.112 228.7666 4.156E-13

Evolutia lunara a IPC in Romania, in perioada noiembrie 1999-octomb 160 155 IPC (%)

Luna

150 145 140 135 130 125 120

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 v- ec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul ug Sep Oc t ov ec J an Feb o D A n D M M M n

Residual Total

22 119.5475 5.433976 23 1362.66

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 142.5208 0.475832 299.5195 3.236E-41 141.534 143.5076 141.534 143.5076 ti -0.519848 0.03437 -15.12503 4.156E-13 -0.591127 -0.448569 -0.591127 -0.448569

a lunara a IPC in Romania, oada noiembrie 1999-octombrie 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 ay J un J ul Aug Sep Oc t nov Dec J an Feb ar Apr ay J un J ul Aug Sep Oc t ov Dec M N M